httpswwwyoutubecomembedRS-3vSvhh7o
a three-line summary
1 If you have achieved a radio civilization, you will inevitably reach a nuclear civilization
2 Militant animals often evolve with relatively high intelligence
By 312, radio civilization is likely to self-destruct
Considering the age of the universe, if mankind does not self-destruct due to nuclear war or environmental pollution for the next 1 million years, contact with alien civilization is positive